State-by-State Variability in Absentee Ballot Processing Could Impact 2024 Election Outcomes

LEXINGTON, KY – The timing of election result ratification varies significantly across states and is heavily influenced by how each state processes mail-in ballots. As the 2024 election approaches, states like Kentucky boast early absentee ballot processing, while others, including Pennsylvania and Alabama, face delays.

In Kentucky, election workers are permitted to begin processing absentee ballots 14 days before Election Day. This allows for the sorting, verification, and temporary storage of these votes before the official count, helping to ensure timely results. However, in states such as Pennsylvania, ballots cannot be opened until 7 a.m. on Election Day, which may dramatically slow the rate at which results are reported.

This situation has notable implications for political outcomes. Statistically, Democrats are more likely to cast absentee ballots. In the 2020 election, early results appeared to favor Democratic candidates in Kentucky due to the larger number of counted absentee votes. As in-person voting numbers began to come in, Republican candidates surged ahead, showcasing how the timing of ballot counting can influence perceived leads during election night.

The contrasting scenario played out in Pennsylvania: Donald Trump led as polls closed, but as mail-in votes were processed, Joe Biden secured the state. This transition in voting trends drew attention to the processing delays and led to days of uncertainty before the results were called.

As the upcoming 2024 election approaches, Pennsylvania has already requested over 1.7 million mail ballots. Similar patterns may create another prolonged counting period, drawing national attention to the state’s procedures. Early processing in other states like Wisconsin and Mississippi, which only commence counting once polls open, will also contribute to the nationwide variability in election results timing.

The differences in absentee ballot processing represent a significant factor in election outcomes, reflecting state laws, political leanings, and logistical capabilities. Election officials across the country are preparing for potential challenges in reporting results swiftly due to these varying practices.

Stakeholders in the political sphere are encouraged to stay informed as advancements and challenges in mail-in ballot processing could shape the narrative and results of the upcoming elections.